Thanks, excellent point - Usually stick with EBITA * tax-rate for profits, but with Asseco having structurally favourable working capital, cash conversion much better than most.
Some quick napkin math on the go here (let me know if you would do differently): ~2.5bn OCF - 0.33bn net Capex = 2.17 bn FCF * 41% (net profit proportion) = 0.89 bn.
13.3 billion Market Cap / 0.89 FCF = 15x LTM free cashflow (much cheaper than our "PE")
Exactly. I see Asseco likely crossing 1B in FCF in 2026, with a market cap of about 83M shares × 195 PLN ~ 16B PLN. That implies a P/FCF of around 18x on LTM and roughly 15–16× on 2026 FCF - excluding any improvements from Topicus
The brokerage I used had the wrong shares out I see then. Either way, looks like a good risk / reward here. (not financial advice - no position myself directly).
Thank you, super interesting. Regarding the valuation, why do you use net profit and not cash generated (proportional recognition)?
Thanks, excellent point - Usually stick with EBITA * tax-rate for profits, but with Asseco having structurally favourable working capital, cash conversion much better than most.
Some quick napkin math on the go here (let me know if you would do differently): ~2.5bn OCF - 0.33bn net Capex = 2.17 bn FCF * 41% (net profit proportion) = 0.89 bn.
13.3 billion Market Cap / 0.89 FCF = 15x LTM free cashflow (much cheaper than our "PE")
Exactly. I see Asseco likely crossing 1B in FCF in 2026, with a market cap of about 83M shares × 195 PLN ~ 16B PLN. That implies a P/FCF of around 18x on LTM and roughly 15–16× on 2026 FCF - excluding any improvements from Topicus
The brokerage I used had the wrong shares out I see then. Either way, looks like a good risk / reward here. (not financial advice - no position myself directly).