4 Comments
Jul 4·edited Jul 4Liked by Ole

Thank you for your interesting contributions.

Whats about competition?

On the first look I would say, I see in europe not stock listed payment processors with similar enhanced features (analytic tools etc.) ( e.g. https://www.sumup.com or https://www.orderbird.com or https://www.clover.com/ --> part of fiserv)

I some stores you can already buy your SumUp mini terminal while buying your weekly groceries.

The only difference I can see for now is that shift4 don't charge any cost in upfront for the hardware. But that could be easy copied by the competitors.

I find it difficult to recognize the lasting competitive advantage.

Perhaps you can shed more light on the competitive landscape in an update.

I have also read that fiserv would like to take over 4shift.

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author
Jul 4Author

Hi, thanks for sharing. I must admit I have not researched the mentioned companies well enough, so I may be missing some key points.

On competition, I would argue Shift4´s value proposition is extremely favourable for merchants. Slashing cost of all their software, giving away hardware and enabling data analytics across the enterprise, is quite a strong value proposition. However, what I believe is most underrated is their capital allocation strategy. The market values Toast´s "organic growth" much higher, but they have much higher customer acquisition costs. I believe Shift4 earns very strong cash returns on invested capital, and is able to reinvest plenty of capital. The two key ingredients behind compounding. Once a newly acquired customers use Shift4 for most of their services, switching costs create the Moat. What may I be missing here?

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Jul 4Liked by Ole

That's the question, what are we overlooking here....I need to do more research into the company and the industry.

An additional plus point to the ones you mentioned is that the founder has been with the company for 25 years and still holds the majority of the shares.

I'm always cautious when something sounds too good to be true. (I've missed many opportunities because of this) As a private investor, you have to assume that Mr. Market knows what's going on.

I think an important KPI here is the retention rate of customers to assess the breadth and depth of the moat. At first glance, I can't find anything about this in the annual report. Maybe I'll ask the IR department about it.

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Phenomenal business run by an intelligent fanatic. The recent Nuvei transaction gives legs to the overall private market valuation and drives my confidence in buying more into $FOUR at the $63 levels. Thanks.

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